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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 26

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.84 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 15, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.22 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.81 EP