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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 83

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to LAC 38, Center-86-K.Nelson. 20-D.King to LAC 37 for -1 yards (53-M.Nzeocha).

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.48 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 83, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 41, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model