Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 26 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 8-D.Kaser punts 42 yards to SF 18, Center-47-M.Windt. 81-T.Taylor to SF 26 for 8 yards (30-A.Ekeler). PENALTY on LAC-48-N.Dzubnar, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 26.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.86 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model