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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 7

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 6-C.Sturgis 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.31 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.58 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.21 EP
PUNT +0.53 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP