Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 17 at the 78

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

(13:37) 5-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to LAC 28, Center-86-K.Nelson. 20-D.King to LAC 49 for 21 yards (47-E.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.08 EP
71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model