Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 72

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 8-D.Kaser punts 55 yards to SF 17, Center-47-M.Windt. 18-D.Pettis to SF 14 for -3 yards (57-J.Brown). SF-18-D.Pettis was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model