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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 3

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 9-R.Gould 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 3, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP