Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 60

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 3

(14:20) 2-M.Haack punts 51 yards to NE 9, Center-92-J.Denney. 41-C.Jones to NE 33 for 24 yards (34-S.Perry; 92-J.Denney).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.37 EP
60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model