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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 2

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +3.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.33 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 2, worth +0.64 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP