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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 50

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 38

What Actually Happened

(6:43) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass short right to 10-K.Stills to NE 39 for 11 yards (50-N.Grigsby).

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.58 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model