Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 73

New England Patriots 24 – Miami Dolphins 0

(14:16) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to MIA 29, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant to MIA 40 for 11 yards (43-N.Ebner; 83-D.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model