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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Miami Dolphins
4th & 7 at the 50
Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 0
What Actually Happened
(12:11) 2-M.Haack punts 26 yards to NE 24, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-1.01 EP
-
36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.88 EP
- 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -3.24 EP
KICK
-1.99 EP
- 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
- 73% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT
-0.94 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.94 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
