Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to NE 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 41-C.Jones to NE 30 for no gain (35-W.Aikens). PENALTY on NE-27-J.Jackson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.42 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model