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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 60

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to MIA 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 36 for 12 yards (53-K.Van Noy).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.72 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 19, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model