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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Miami Dolphins
4th & 8 at the 48
Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 10
What Actually Happened
(10:56) 2-M.Haack punts 25 yards to NE 23, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.85 EP
-
34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.21 EP
- 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.97 EP
KICK
-1.60 EP
- 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
- 69% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT
-0.72 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.72 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
