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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Denver Broncos
4th & 5 at the 48
Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 3
What Actually Happened
(:18) 1-M.King punts 37 yards to KC 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.14 EP
-
41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.23 EP
- 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.46 EP
KICK
-0.99 EP
- 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
- 68% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT
-0.04 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
