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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 41

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.71 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model