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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 28

Denver Broncos 23 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(:16) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to KC 19 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by KC-50-J.Houston at KC 25. 50-J.Houston to KC 25 for no gain (72-G.Bolles). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +1.66 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.88 EP