4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 54

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Denver Broncos 23

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 27-K.Hunt to DEN 32 for 22 yards (31-J.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.31 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 54, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model