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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 28

Denver Broncos 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.45 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model