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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(:38) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to DEN 24, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 17-D.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.13 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP