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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(9:18) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to KC 36 for 2 yards (99-A.Gotsis).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model