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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 44

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.12 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model