4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 3

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.57 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 3, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP