4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 16

Denver Broncos 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:04) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +2.96 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 16, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model