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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 24

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 8-B.McManus 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.07 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model