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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 20 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to DEN 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 24-A.Jones to DEN 24 for 2 yards (84-D.Harris; 35-C.Ward).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.95 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model