4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 56

Houston Texans 14 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 8-T.Daniel punts 47 yards to IND 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.96 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 56, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model