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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 64

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 2-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to HOU 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. HOU-52-B.Peters was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.94 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP