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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 2-R.Sanchez punts 37 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 21-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.95 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model