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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 41

Detroit Lions 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(6:47) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 31 yards to DAL 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.46 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model