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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 20

Dallas Cowboys 23 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +1.52 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 20, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model