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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 4

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(5:52) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. Injury updates: Jeff Heath has a shoulder injury; his return is questionable. Quandre Diggs has a hand injury; his return is questionable.

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 4, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP