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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 3

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DET 1 for 2 yards (40-J.Davis). FUMBLES (40-J.Davis), recovered by DAL-89-B.Jarwin at DET 1. The ball was fumbled at the 1; ball bounced into the end zone; by rule ball placed back at the 1; ball recorded by Dallas.

The Three Options

GO +4.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.23 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 3, worth +0.75 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model