4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 15

Detroit Lions 7 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(2:54) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.05 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 15, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model