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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 14

Atlanta Falcons 33 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 3-M.Bryant 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. Penalty on CIN-29-T.McRae, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model