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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:40) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to PIT 15, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model