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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 17 at the 86

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(6:15) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to BAL 42, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 14-T.White.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.61 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 86, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 44, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model