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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:40) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.89 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model