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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 42

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(14:18) (Run formation) 10-C.Moore left guard to PIT 39 for 3 yards (25-A.Burns, 98-V.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.00 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model