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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 53

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(7:32) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to BAL 20, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 14-T.White.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.85 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 53, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP