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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 41

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:11) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.90 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model