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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to PIT 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.88 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -1.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP