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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 18 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(4:57) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to PIT 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 24 for 3 yards (47-D.Turner, 41-A.Levine Sr.).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.56 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model