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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 44

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 5-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to KC 11, Center-86-K.Nelson. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 16 for 5 yards (88-G.Celek).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.14 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model