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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 18

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 38

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle to KC 17 for 1 yard (59-R.Ragland; 21-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.79 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model