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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 19

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes right guard to SF 17 for 2 yards (54-C.Marsh).

The Three Options

GO +3.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.09 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model