Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 80

Kansas City Chiefs 35 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to SF 32, Center-41-J.Winchester. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at SF 45 for 13 yards (25-A.Watts). PENALTY on SF-47-E.Lee, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SF 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model