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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 52

Kansas City Chiefs 35 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to SF 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.88 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP