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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 71

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to KC 32, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.89 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 29, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model